Be Sure Your Social Media Marketing Actually Works

A lot of solopreneurs spend January “getting back on track” with social media—new content calendar, fresh Canva templates, maybe a goal like post 5x/week. Then February shows up, and the results still feel random.

Here’s what I’ve learned after watching hundreds of one-person businesses market themselves: most inconsistency isn’t a motivation problem—it’s a certainty problem. You’re not sure what’s working, so you either over-post (busywork) or freeze (avoidance).

Seth Godin recently used a simple metaphor: bakers still “proof” yeast—even though yeast is more reliable than it used to be—because a few minutes of checking is cheap insurance against wasting a whole day on a dead loaf. Marketing works the same way. A small, smart test early beats a painful surprise later.

This post is part of the Small Business Social Media USA series, and it’s about building a system that makes you confident: confident your content is reaching the right people, confident your offers are clear, and confident you’re not wasting your limited time.

The “proof the yeast” rule for small business social media

Answer first: The fastest way to improve solopreneur marketing is to add cheap, early checks that prevent expensive failures.

When you’re a one-person team, your scarcest resource isn’t ideas—it’s time and attention. If you’re going to spend 6 hours writing a LinkedIn post series, recording Reels, or planning a launch, you need a quick way to verify the core ingredient is alive.

In social media marketing, your “yeast” is usually one of these:

• Message-market fit: Do the right people understand what you do in 5 seconds?
• Distribution: Are your posts actually being seen by the niche you want?
• Conversion path: If someone likes your content, do they know what to do next?

A “proof” is a small action that gives you confidence before you scale effort.

A simple certainty formula you can actually use

Godin’s math is blunt and useful:

Risk = (chance something fails) × (cost if it fails).

Then compare that to the cost of testing.

For solopreneurs, the “cost if it fails” is often invisible until you name it:

• Two weeks of content that attracts the wrong audience
• A launch that sells nothing because the offer wasn’t clear
• A month of posting without collecting a single email address
• Burnout from “being consistent” with no signal

If you’re posting on social media as a small business owner, you need to treat certainty as part of the work, not an optional extra.

The three traps that make solopreneurs test the wrong things

Answer first: Solopreneurs often run checks that feel productive but don’t reduce real risk—because tradition, proximity, and vivid failures hijack attention.

Godin calls out three shortcuts. They show up in small business social media constantly.

1) Tradition: “This is what you’re supposed to do”

Traditional tests in marketing look like this:

• “Post every day because the algorithm rewards consistency.”
• “Use 30 hashtags.”
• “Follow a trending audio.”
• “Make your grid look cohesive.”

Some of these tactics can help. The problem is they become rituals, not decisions.

If you’re a solopreneur in the U.S. trying to generate leads, tradition is a trap because it encourages visible activity over useful outcomes.

A better test: Before you optimize frequency, test clarity.

• Show your Instagram bio and last 3 posts to a friend in your target market.
• Ask them: “What do I sell, who is it for, and what should someone do next?”
• If they can’t answer in 10 seconds, your posting schedule won’t save you.

2) Proximity to failure: obsessing over the last step

“Proximity to failure” means we focus on what’s closest to breaking—usually the end of the process.

In social media, that’s often:

• Tweaking captions endlessly
• Fixating on the hook of a Reel
• Redesigning the carousel layout again
• Rewriting the same CTA because it “doesn’t feel right”

But the underlying system might be broken upstream:

• You’re targeting too broad an audience
• Your offer isn’t specific
• Your content topics don’t map to your service
• You don’t have a lead capture mechanism

A better test: Validate the pipeline, not the punctuation.

Here’s a quick “system check” I like:

1. Can a stranger land on your profile and immediately know your niche?
2. Do you have one obvious next step (DM keyword, email signup, consult link)?
3. Have you posted at least 3 pieces of proof in the last 30 days (results, testimonials, before/after, case study)?

If any of those are missing, improving your Reels editing is polishing a car with no engine.

3) Vivid failures: reacting to loud, rare disasters

Vivid failures are the dramatic things that grab attention:

• A post “flops” (low likes)
• A competitor goes viral
• Someone leaves a mean comment
• A platform changes a feature

Those events feel urgent. They aren’t always important.

A post with 12 likes that brings in 2 qualified DMs is a win. A post with 2,000 likes that attracts students and freebie-seekers can be a long-term loss.

A better test: Track the boring metrics that predict revenue.

For lead-focused solopreneurs, the “boring” metrics usually beat vanity metrics:

• Profile visits → link clicks
• DMs started by ideal clients
• Email signups per week
• Consult calls booked per month
• Close rate from social leads

If you don’t measure any of those, you’ll keep being yanked around by whatever feels loud.

What to test first: the highest-risk components of your marketing

Answer first: Test positioning and audience fit before you test creative, cadence, or tools.

You can’t test everything (and you shouldn’t). So where should a one-person business start?

Here’s the order I recommend for small business social media in the U.S., especially if your goal is leads.

Test #1: Your “one-sentence promise”

Your promise should be specific enough that the right people lean in and the wrong people scroll past.

Try this template:

• I help [specific person] get [specific result] without [common pain].

Examples:

• “I help first-time restaurant owners in Texas fill slow weeknights without relying on discounts.”
• “I help B2B consultants turn LinkedIn posts into booked calls without daily posting.”

Cheap proof: Put that sentence in your bio and pin a post that expands it. Watch whether profile visits and DMs from qualified people increase over the next 14 days.

Test #2: Your content-to-offer map

A lot of solopreneurs create content that’s interesting but disconnected from what they sell.

Make a quick map:

• List your top 3 services/products.
• For each, list 3 problems it solves.
• For each problem, list 3 posts you can create: a story, a tip, and a proof.

That gives you 27 post ideas that aren’t random.

Cheap proof: Post 6 of them over two weeks and include a consistent CTA. If nothing moves (no saves, no DMs, no clicks), your offer or audience targeting needs adjustment—not your Canva skills.

Test #3: Your conversion path (where leads go)

If your social media brings attention but not leads, it’s usually because there’s no clear next step.

Pick one primary action for 30 days:

• “DM me the word PLAN and I’ll send the checklist.”
• “Grab the free template in my link.”
• “Book a 15-minute fit call.”

Cheap proof: Track the count weekly. A solopreneur doesn’t need complex attribution—just a simple scoreboard.

A practical “certainty checklist” you can run every Friday

Answer first: Weekly certainty checks keep you consistent because they remove guesswork.

Consistency is easier when you trust your process. Here’s a lightweight Friday review (15 minutes) I’ve found sustainable for one-person teams.

The 15-minute Friday review

1. Look at the last 7 days of posts. Which 1 got the most saves, replies, DMs, or link clicks?
2. Write down the topic and angle. Not the format—the message.
3. Check your lead indicators:
   • DMs from qualified people
   • Email signups
   • Calls booked
4. Make one decision for next week:
   • Repeat what worked once
   • Remove one activity that didn’t matter
   • Tighten your CTA

The rule that keeps you sane

Don’t change three variables at once.

If you change your niche, offer, posting frequency, platform, and content style in the same month, you’ll never be sure what caused what.

Pick one:

• Improve your profile positioning
• Improve your CTA and lead capture
• Improve your content consistency (same themes weekly)

Then run it for 30 days.

“People also ask”: how do I know if my social media marketing is working?

Answer first: Social media marketing is working when it reliably produces qualified conversations, not when it produces occasional spikes.

Here are practical signs you’re on track:

• You’re getting repeat engagement from the same types of people (your niche).
• You receive DMs that reference a specific post (“I saw your post about pricing…”).
• Your email list grows weekly, even if slowly.
• You can point to a simple chain: post → DM/click → call → sale.

And here’s the sign you’re not: you’re optimizing for reach while your calendar stays empty.

The consistency mindset: be sure, then be seen

Most solopreneurs think consistency is about willpower. I don’t. Consistency comes from certainty. When you’re sure your message is clear, your audience is right, and your next step makes sense, showing up gets easier.

So proof your yeast.

Run the cheap tests early. Stop doing “traditional” checks that don’t protect you. And don’t let vivid, loud moments (a flop, a troll, a platform change) steer the whole business.

If you’re working through the Small Business Social Media USA series, here’s your next move: pick one certainty test from this post and run it for 14 days. What changes—profile clarity, DMs, email signups, booked calls—when you stop guessing and start checking?