Canada’s steady home sales: smart money moves for 2026

Canada’s housing market didn’t “turn a corner” in November—it mostly hit cruise control. National home sales slipped 0.6% month over month, while still running about 11% lower than November 2024. New listings also fell (-1.6%), which kept conditions balanced rather than pushing the market sharply toward buyers or sellers.

Here’s why that matters in the Interest Rates, Banking & Personal Finance series: when sales and supply stabilize at the same time, interest rates become the main variable that decides what you can afford, how fast your mortgage balance shrinks, and whether it’s smarter to keep cash liquid (or lock it into a GIC). And with the Bank of Canada signalling rates are “about as good as they’re likely to get” for this cycle, the decisions you make in the next 60–90 days (pre-approval, renewal strategy, down payment parking) can have a multi-year impact.

Below is what November’s CREA data is really telling you—and the practical money moves I’d make if I were buying, renewing, or sitting on the sidelines heading into 2026.

The market is “balanced” — and that’s a bigger deal than it sounds

Balanced markets are boring. That’s exactly why they’re useful.

CREA reported a national sales-to-new-listings ratio of 52.7% in November (up slightly from 52.2% in October). A ratio in the low-50s typically signals a balanced housing market—not a frenzy, not a freeze. Translation: you can negotiate, but you can’t assume every seller is desperate.

What balanced conditions mean for buyers

In a balanced market, your advantage doesn’t come from “timing the market.” It comes from being the buyer who can execute.

If you’re shopping in early 2026, your leverage will usually come from:

• Financing certainty (a solid pre-approval, clean documents, realistic conditions)
• Flexibility on closing dates (especially for sellers trying to line up their next purchase)
• Clarity on your ceiling (so you don’t get pulled into emotional bidding)

The reality? When sales are steady, sellers often stop chasing last month’s headlines and start caring about one thing: a firm offer that closes.

What balanced conditions mean for sellers

If you’re selling into a balanced market, pricing becomes the strategy.

November’s numbers suggest some sellers made price concessions to get deals done before year-end. That pattern often continues into January and February, when fewer buyers are active and many listings are “test-the-market” pricing experiments.

If you’re selling, don’t anchor on the peak comp from 18 months ago. Anchor on today’s payment reality for buyers.

Inventory is steady — so affordability (not supply) is the bottleneck

CREA put national months of inventory at 4.4 months, basically unchanged since July and close to the long-run norm (around five months).

That tells you something important: Canada’s national housing market isn’t tightening or loosening quickly right now. The friction point is affordability—driven by mortgage rates, qualifying rules, and monthly payment comfort.

A quick affordability reality check (why “small” rate changes matter)

When rates are stable, it’s easy to underestimate how sensitive payments are to price.

A simple rule of thumb I use:

• If your monthly payment is already near your comfort limit, a 1% purchase price increase often hurts more than you expect.
• If you’re renewing soon, even a small rate difference (say 0.25%–0.50%) can be meaningful over a 3- to 5-year term.

So if the Bank of Canada is effectively telling you “don’t wait around for big cuts,” you should plan as if this is the rate environment you’ll be living with.

Prices softened in November — but don’t confuse that with a “sale”

November’s pricing data was modestly down:

• MLS® HPI: -0.4% month over month
• MLS® HPI: -3.7% year over year
• National average sale price: $682,219 (down ~2% YoY)

That’s not a crash. It’s a market where buyers still have enough leverage to ask for things that were laughed off in 2021–2022.

Where buyers can still negotiate (even if competition returns)

If sales pick up in early 2026 (a reasonable bet if borrowers believe rates won’t get much better), negotiation shifts from price-only to terms-and-risk.

In a steady market, smart negotiations usually focus on:

• Inspection scope and timeline (protect yourself without dragging it out)
• Repair credits for known issues (roof, windows, electrical, grading)
• Closing date (sellers often value certainty more than a tiny price bump)
• Inclusions (appliances, window coverings, even some furniture)

And yes, price matters—but the biggest wins often come from reducing surprises after closing.

A stance: “waiting for lower rates” is a risky plan

Most people frame the decision as: buy now at today’s rates, or wait for lower rates.

But if many buyers wait for the same thing, the moment rates look meaningfully better, you can get:

• more demand,
• more bidding,
• faster price rebounds.

So you don’t automatically “win” by waiting. You just swap one risk (rate level) for another (price competition).

What a rate-hold environment means for your mortgage strategy

A stable policy rate changes how you should think about mortgages. When rates are falling fast, almost anything works. When rates plateau, details matter.

If you’re buying: treat the mortgage as a risk-management tool

Your goal isn’t to “pick the perfect rate.” Your goal is to avoid the two painful outcomes:

1. House-poor payments that kill your savings and flexibility
2. Renewal shock if you take on too much variable-rate risk without a buffer

Practical moves that tend to work in late-2025 into 2026:

• Get a pre-approval early (before holiday spending or job changes complicate documents)
• Run scenarios at your current rate and +1% higher. If +1% breaks you, you’re too close to the edge.
• Pick a term that matches your life, not the headlines (job stability, family plans, likelihood of moving)

If you’re renewing in 2026: negotiate like it’s a business deal (because it is)

Renewal borrowers often accept the first offer because it feels “administrative.” That’s expensive.

If rates are near their cycle low, your renewal decision becomes more about:

• Term length (how long you want payment certainty)
• Prepayment privileges (how aggressively you plan to pay down principal)
• Penalty risk (especially if there’s any chance you’ll sell/refinance)

A strong renewal checklist:

1. Ask your lender for their best offer in writing.
2. Compare against at least one alternative option.
3. Decide whether you’ll likely break the mortgage early—if yes, prioritize a structure with manageable penalties.

If you do nothing else, do this: choose based on total cost and flexibility, not just the headline rate.

If you have variable-rate debt: use stability to get ahead

When rates stop rising, your best play is often boring: accelerate principal reduction.

Consider:

• Converting “payment relief” into extra principal (biweekly acceleration, lump sums)
• Paying down highest-interest debt first (credit cards beat everything)
• Building a 3–6 month cash buffer so you’re not forced into bad refinancing decisions later

Don’t ignore your “cash strategy”: down payments, emergency funds, and GIC timing

A steady housing market plus a rate-hold environment also changes where your cash should sit.

If you’re buying within 12 months

Keep the down payment boring. This isn’t the time for volatile investments.

Commonly sensible options:

• High-interest savings (for flexibility)
• Short-term GICs (for a bit more yield, if the timeline is firm)

The win here is not maximizing return. The win is certainty.

If you’re not buying soon (18+ months)

Then you can afford more nuance:

• Keep emergency cash liquid
• Invest the rest according to risk tolerance
• If you like GICs, consider laddering so you’re not stuck with all your cash locked up at the wrong time

A steady market rewards people who stay liquid enough to act when the right property—or the right rate—shows up.

Quick FAQs people are asking heading into 2026

Are Canadian home prices going to drop more in 2026?

Nationally, November showed modest declines, not a freefall. The bigger story is that prices are sensitive to buyer demand returning if people believe rates won’t improve much.

Is it a good time to buy a house in Canada?

If you have stable income, a real down payment plan, and you can handle payments comfortably, a balanced market can be a good window. If you’re stretching to qualify, it’s not.

Fixed or variable in 2026?

With the Bank of Canada suggesting rates are near their low point for this cycle, a lot of households will value payment stability. Variable can still work, but only if you have room in the budget and a plan for volatility.

What I’d do next (based on November’s numbers)

Canada’s November housing data paints a clear picture: steady sales, steady inventory, slightly softer prices, and a rate backdrop that’s unlikely to get dramatically cheaper in the near term.

If you’re buying in early 2026, I’d focus less on predicting the market and more on controlling what you can:

• tighten your budget so the payment is comfortable,
• secure financing early,
• negotiate on terms and risk,
• keep your cash plan simple and reliable.

If you’re renewing, I’d treat it like a major purchase—because it is. Rate holds are when lenders make easy money off passive renewals.

Where do you want your finances to be by next winter: locked into a payment that limits your life, or set up with flexibility and options if the market shifts again?