Canada Home Sales Steady: Your 2026 Mortgage Playbook

Canadian home sales barely moved in November—down 0.6% month-over-month—and that “nothing much happened” headline is exactly what makes this data useful. When sales, supply, and prices are all hovering in a narrow band, the housing market starts behaving less like a roller coaster and more like a budgeting problem you can actually plan around.

For anyone following the Interest Rates, Banking & Personal Finance story this year, November’s numbers also carry a message about money: rate expectations are settling, and buyer behaviour is adjusting. This is where good mortgage planning beats “waiting for the perfect moment.”

Here’s what the latest market stats mean, how they connect to interest rates, and what I’d do differently as a buyer, seller, or renewing homeowner heading into 2026.

What November’s “steady sales” really signals

Canada’s housing market is in a holding pattern: activity is stable month to month, but softer than last year. National sales were down about 11% year-over-year, which sounds dramatic until you remember how different the rate environment was in late 2024.

A steady market usually means one thing: the next move depends on borrowing costs, not on pent-up chaos in supply or demand. That matters because the Bank of Canada’s recent tone suggests rates are close to the low point for this cycle—not necessarily falling fast from here.

Two practical implications follow:

• Buyers stop waiting for “one more big rate drop.” They start shopping based on monthly payment comfort and approval certainty.
• Sellers stop pricing for 2021-style bidding wars. They price for today’s payment reality and close deals with smaller concessions.

This matters because real estate decisions aren’t made on headlines—they’re made on what a household can carry every month.

The market is stable, not “rebounding”

If you’re hoping for a sudden surge in prices, November didn’t support that. If you’re worried about a crash, it didn’t support that either. Stability is the theme:

• Sales slipped slightly (-0.6% MoM)
• New listings fell too (-1.6% MoM)
• Market balance barely budged

When both buyers and sellers hesitate at the same time, the market tends to “freeze” in place rather than swing wildly.

Balanced conditions: the stats that matter for negotiating

The most useful negotiating stat in November was the national sales-to-new-listings ratio: 52.7% (up from 52.2% in October). Low-50s is generally considered balanced.

Balanced doesn’t mean “easy.” It means:

• Good homes still sell (especially if priced close to reality)
• Buyers can negotiate, but they need to be prepared and fast on the right property

What “balanced market” means for buyers

In a buyer’s market, you can lowball everything and wait. In a seller’s market, you overbid and waive conditions. In a balanced market, you win by being boring and ready.

If you’re buying heading into early 2026, the strongest approach is:

1. Get a real pre-approval (not a casual online estimate)
2. Decide your monthly payment ceiling before you fall in love with a listing
3. Keep financing and inspection conditions unless the property is truly exceptional
4. Negotiate on what’s provable: days on market, comparable sales, visible repair costs

A balanced market rewards buyers who can close cleanly, not buyers who try to “time” the bottom.

What “balanced market” means for sellers

Sellers often hear “balanced” and think they can list high “just to try.” That strategy is expensive.

In this environment, the penalty for overpricing is usually:

• fewer showings in the first 10–14 days
• weaker offers later
• a price reduction that becomes visible history

If you’re selling, I’m a fan of pricing for activity, not ego. Create competitive tension with a realistic list price, then protect your downside with timing and terms.

Inventory is steady—so rates are doing the heavy lifting

November’s national months of inventory held at 4.4. Canada’s long-run average is about five months, and the “balanced” range is typically between 3.6 and 6.4.

So the market isn’t being pushed around by a sudden flood of listings or a shortage of homes. It’s being pushed around by affordability, which is driven by:

• mortgage rates
• qualifying rules (stress test)
• income growth (or lack of it)

A quick affordability example (why small rate changes matter)

Even without doing a full spreadsheet, the direction is clear: when rates are high, small drops can make a big psychological difference.

If a household is right on the edge of qualifying, a modest rate improvement can:

• increase approved loan amount
• reduce monthly payment
• lower the stress of choosing fixed vs. variable

That’s why “steady sales” can flip to “busier spring market” quickly if borrowers believe rates have bottomed.

My stance: if you’re waiting for a dramatic drop, you might be waiting through the period when selection is best and negotiating power is strongest.

Prices softened: what that says about buyer leverage

Prices didn’t fall off a cliff, but they did soften:

• MLS® Home Price Index fell 0.4% month-over-month
• HPI was down 3.7% year-over-year
• National average sale price was $682,219, down 2% year-over-year

That combination tells you something important: buyers still have leverage, and sellers are making modest concessions to get deals done.

Where concessions show up (and how to ask for them)

Concessions aren’t always a giant price cut. In a balanced market, they’re often “quiet”:

• seller pays for a repair discovered in inspection
• seller agrees to a longer closing date
• seller includes appliances or credits for fixes
• seller accepts a financing condition

If you’re buying, ask for concessions that match the home’s realities. If you’re selling, decide in advance what you’ll give on (repairs, dates, chattels) and what you won’t (price floor).

Your 2026 mortgage strategy, based on what the market is doing

If the market is stable and the Bank of Canada is implying rates are “about as good as they’re likely to get,” the winning move is to treat your mortgage like a risk management decision, not a prediction contest.

If you’re buying in early 2026

Answer first: You should optimize for payment safety and flexibility, because a stable market doesn’t guarantee your personal cash flow will stay stable.

What works:

• Run your budget at a higher “what-if” rate than you’re offered. If it still works, you’re safe.
• Prioritize a term length that matches your life, not the headlines (job mobility, family plans, expected move).
• Keep a cash buffer. Homeownership is a stack of surprise invoices, especially in the first year.

If you’re torn between fixed and variable, here’s a clean way to decide: choose the option that lets you sleep and still save money each month. Stress is an expense.

If you’re renewing in 2026

Answer first: Your biggest risk isn’t the exact renewal rate—it’s signing without shopping and locking in a payment you can’t adjust.

Renewal checklist I’d use:

1. Start 120–180 days early so you’re not negotiating under pressure
2. Compare multiple lenders, not just your current bank’s first offer
3. Ask about prepayment privileges and portability, not just the posted rate
4. Check penalty language if there’s any chance you refinance or sell mid-term

A good renewal is a combination of rate, flexibility, and penalty risk. Most people only look at the first part.

If you’re staying put: use rate stability to clean up your finances

A steady-rate environment is a gift if you use it well. If you’re not moving, focus on household fundamentals:

• Pay down high-interest debt before you accelerate mortgage prepayments
• Build (or rebuild) an emergency fund to protect your mortgage payments
• Automate savings contributions so you don’t rely on willpower

Stable housing markets reward boring consistency.

Common questions people ask when sales are “flat”

Should I wait for prices to drop more?

If you’re waiting for a big price reset, you’re betting against a market that’s already showing stability in sales, balanced inventory, and only modest price softness. A better approach is to buy when the monthly payment fits and the property checks your needs.

Will spring 2026 be more competitive?

Likely yes, if rate expectations stay anchored near today’s levels. When buyers believe rates won’t meaningfully improve, they stop waiting. That shifts competition from “rates” back to “listings.”

Is this a good time to get pre-approved?

Yes. In a balanced market, being pre-approved is negotiating power. It lets you move quickly without compromising on conditions or overextending your budget.

What I’d do next (buyer, seller, or renewer)

November’s data supports a simple idea: Canada’s housing market is pausing, not pivoting. Sales are steady, inventory is normal, and prices are easing modestly as year-end dealmaking happens.

If you’re buying, treat the next few months as a window to negotiate without panic. If you’re selling, price realistically and prepare for smaller concessions instead of perfect offers. If you’re renewing, shop early and make penalty risk part of your decision.

This series is about how interest rates ripple through real-life money decisions—mortgages, savings, debt, and household planning. The question for 2026 isn’t whether you can predict the next rate move. It’s whether your plan still works if nothing dramatic happens.

What’s the one part of your housing plan that would break first: the down payment, the monthly payment, or the renewal terms?