Stagnant Consumer Confidence: Smarter Marketing Moves

GfK’s latest UK Consumer Confidence Barometer reading is -17 for December 2025, up two points on November—yet unchanged from December 2024. That “two-point lift” is the kind of headline that sounds positive until you realise what it really means: households feel no better off than they did a year ago.

For British small businesses, this isn’t abstract economic commentary. It shows up as slower footfall, longer decision cycles, more price-checking, more “I’ll think about it” messages, and customers who buy… but only when it feels safe. If you’re in our Cost of Living & Household Affordability series because you’re trying to make marketing work while everyone is watching their spending, this is the reality behind the numbers.

The opportunity is still there, but it’s not in “spend more and hope.” It’s in tight, measurable digital marketing that wins cautious customers: clearer offers, better targeting, stronger trust signals, and less waste.

A flat year in consumer confidence doesn’t mean people stop buying. It means they become pickier about who they buy from and why.

What the -17 confidence score actually means for small business sales

A consumer confidence index of -17 doesn’t tell you “no one will spend.” It tells you risk tolerance is low. In practice, that changes how people buy:

• More comparison shopping (your customer is checking three alternatives, not one)
• More sensitivity to total cost (delivery fees, add-ons, servicing, subscriptions)
• More demand for reassurance (reviews, guarantees, local reputation)
• More emphasis on “value” (not always “cheap”, but “worth it”)

The source article highlighted a notable detail: major purchase intentions jumped four points to -11, and that figure is five points higher than a year ago—even though broader economic views remain deeply negative (e.g., perceptions of the general economic situation over the past year were still around -40).

Here’s my take: this pattern is consistent with households doing selective spending. They’ll still buy certain things (especially seasonal, necessary, or emotionally justified purchases), but they’ll be ruthless about the decision.

The “year of no progress” effect: your pipeline gets slower

GfK described 2025 as a “year of no progress” in sentiment. That doesn’t usually crash demand overnight—it stretches the funnel:

• Leads take longer to convert
• More prospects ask for quotes and don’t proceed
• Promotions work, but the uplift fades faster

So the job for marketing in 2026 isn’t loudness. It’s conversion efficiency.

Why “nothing to get excited about” is a useful marketing warning

Neil Bellamy at GfK cautioned against overinterpreting the uplift, calling it “nothing to get excited about.” Small business owners should treat that as a planning note:

Plan for a cautious Q1 and a competitive spring. January and February are already tough months for discretionary spending in many sectors, and 2026 starts with consumers still feeling the strain of cost of living pressures.

This matters because many businesses react to uncertainty by cutting marketing first. I think that’s usually the wrong cut.

Don’t slash marketing—slash waste

When budgets tighten, your goal is to protect the work that creates demand you can measure and control:

• Keep: high-intent search campaigns, local SEO, remarketing, email/SMS to existing customers
• Reduce: broad awareness with unclear targeting, underperforming channels you can’t track

A flat confidence year is when market share quietly changes hands. The businesses that stay visible and look trustworthy win the cautious buyer.

Budget-conscious digital marketing tactics that hold up in 2026

The most reliable approach in a stagnant consumer environment is simple: prioritise channels where intent is already high and remove friction from the buying journey.

1) Local SEO: the highest-ROI “slow burn” most small firms underinvest in

Local search is where cautious customers go because it feels safer: nearby, reviewable, accountable. If you want cost-effective digital marketing, you don’t ignore your Google Business Profile.

Focus on:

• Google Business Profile: correct categories, services, fresh photos, weekly updates
• Review velocity: aim for a steady stream (even 2–4 per month) rather than bursts
• Location pages: one clear page per service area (not thin duplicates)
• Proof of trust: “family-run”, “since 2012”, accreditations, case photos

Snippet-worthy truth: When household affordability is tight, “local + trustworthy” beats “big + generic.”

2) Paid search: buy demand that already exists (and measure it properly)

If you run Google Ads, 2026 is the year to stop paying for ambiguity.

Do these three things:

1. Split campaigns by intent (e.g., “emergency plumber” vs “plumber prices”)
2. Use negative keywords aggressively (block “free”, “jobs”, “DIY” where relevant)
3. Track real outcomes: calls, lead forms, bookings—don’t stop at “clicks”

A practical benchmark: if you can’t explain which keyword themes produce customers at a tolerable cost per acquisition, you’re not managing spend—you’re funding a hunch.

3) Remarketing: the cheapest way to deal with longer decision cycles

When confidence is low, people rarely convert on the first visit. Remarketing exists for this exact situation.

Use:

• Website remarketing (7/30/90-day audiences)
• “Viewed product/service page but didn’t enquire” audiences
• Offer-led ads for hesitant buyers (price match, free consultation, guaranteed turnaround)

Keep it restrained. Frequency caps matter. You want “helpful reminder”, not “digital stalker.”

4) Email marketing: turn first-time buyers into repeat buyers

In a cost of living squeeze, retention is your margin protector.

A simple small business email system:

• Welcome email: what you do, how you work, what to expect
• Proof email: best reviews, before/after, guarantees
• Offer email: one strong, time-bound reason to act
• Reactivation email: “still need help with X?” after 60–90 days

If you sell products, add replenishment reminders. If you sell services, add seasonal prompts (spring servicing, pre-MOT checks, post-Christmas repairs).

How to position “value” without racing to the bottom on price

When consumers feel squeezed, many businesses panic-discount. That can work short-term, but it’s also how you train people to wait for sales.

The better play is to make value obvious.

Value is clarity, not just price

Improve conversion by tightening the offer:

• Replace “Competitive prices” with “Fixed price quotes in 24 hours”
• Replace “High quality” with “2-year workmanship guarantee”
• Replace “Fast delivery” with “Delivered in 2–3 working days, tracked”

These are affordability-friendly because they reduce perceived risk.

Add “cost-of-living friendly” options that protect your margin

Examples that don’t wreck profitability:

• Tiered packages (Good/Better/Best)
• Pay-in-2 or deposit options (where appropriate and compliant)
• Bundles that reduce decision fatigue (e.g., “Winter boiler check + priority call-out”)

Households are prioritising financial caution (GfK’s Savings Index held at 24). Your marketing should respect that mindset.

Quick diagnostic: is your strategy resilient enough for “no progress”?

If you want a fast check on whether your marketing will cope with stagnant consumer confidence, use this list.

The 10-minute resilience checklist

• Can a new visitor understand your offer in 5 seconds?
• Do you show prices or at least clear starting prices?
• Are reviews visible above the fold on key pages?
• Do you have a clear “next step” (call, book, quote) on every page?
• Are you tracking calls and forms as conversions?
• Do you know your cost per lead by channel?
• Are you emailing past customers at least monthly?
• Are you ranking in the local map pack for at least one core service?
• Do your ads send traffic to a page that matches the keyword intent?
• Could you cut 20% of spend tomorrow without cutting your best-performing activity?

If you can’t answer half of these confidently, the fix is rarely “more content” or “more spend.” It’s better basics.

People also ask: what should small businesses do when consumer confidence is low?

Focus on measurable demand capture and conversion. In low-confidence periods, prioritise local SEO, high-intent search ads, remarketing, and email retention—then remove friction from the website journey.

Should you reduce marketing spend during a cost of living squeeze? Cut waste, not visibility. Reduce broad targeting and low-tracking channels first, and protect campaigns that reliably generate leads or repeat business.

How do you market without discounting? Make value concrete: guarantees, fixed quotes, transparent timelines, social proof, and tiered options. People pay when risk feels low.

What to do next (and what to stop doing)

GfK’s December reading rising to -17 is a reminder that the cost of living and household affordability pressures haven’t disappeared—they’ve stabilised into a cautious baseline. That’s why small business marketing in early 2026 should be ROI-first, not hype-first.

If you want one practical next step: pick one acquisition channel (local SEO or paid search) and one conversion lever (reviews, guarantee, clearer pricing, faster response times). Improve those for 30 days. Measure the result. Then repeat.

The question worth asking as we head further into 2026: if consumers stay cautious for another 12 months, will your marketing still be profitable—or is it built on better times?