UK grid reforms just cut 153GW of battery storage from the queue. Here’s what changed, who loses out, and how smart green tech players can adapt and win.
Most countries would love to have too many clean energy projects in the pipeline. The UK has the opposite problem: more green capacity queued for grid connection than the system can realistically handle.
The latest numbers are brutal. After a major overhaul of the grid connection process, the UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) has removed or deprioritised 153GW of battery storage projects from the queue. Only battery energy storage systems (BESS) with “protected” status are getting firm connection dates through to 2035.
This matters because batteries aren’t a side-show anymore. They’re core infrastructure for a renewables-led grid, for electric vehicles, and for the broader green technology transition. If you’re a developer, investor, or corporate energy buyer, these reforms change how—and where—you should build your portfolio.
This article breaks down what actually changed, why NESO called the reforms “painful but necessary”, and how smart players can adapt their clean energy and storage strategy in response.
What NESO’s Grid Connection Shake-Up Actually Did
NESO has effectively reset the queue for grid connections across Great Britain and created a new, more selective process.
Headline numbers from the reform:
- Pre-reform queue: ~722GW of projects waiting for connection offers
- Post-reform: 283GW of projects offered connection dates up to 2035
- Battery storage: 83GW given priority (Gate 2), 153GW deprioritised or removed
Gate 1 vs Gate 2: The new filter
NESO now uses a gate-based system to control who gets realistic connection dates:
- Gate 2 projects: “Prioritised” projects offered firm dates up to 2035
- Phase 1 (pre-2030): 132GW will connect before 2030
- Phase 2 (2030–2035): 151GW will connect between 2030 and 2035
- Gate 1 projects: Put on hold unless capacity frees up—effectively a waiting room
For government policy context, the UK is targeting an energy system that’s almost 100% renewable by 2030, with gas used mainly for stability. NESO’s 132GW of pre-2030 Gate 2 projects is central to that goal.
Who lost out?
The biggest losers are new or early-stage battery storage projects:
- Only BESS projects with “protected” status—those already well progressed—kept their positions and dates
- 153GW of BESS didn’t make the cut and were either:
- Shifted to Gate 1 (no firm date) or
- Dropped entirely from the prioritised list
- NESO now expects an oversupply of 62GW of battery storage by 2035 relative to what’s needed in its central planning scenario
Long-duration energy storage (LDES) projects also hit a limit: capacity is essentially full through 2035, with 5.6GW not prioritised.
This is why Solar Energy UK called the reforms “painful but necessary”. They’ve cleared out speculative or slow-moving projects, but they’ve also closed the door on a lot of near-term battery ambition.
Why These Reforms Matter for Green Technology
Here’s the thing about grid reform: it’s not just a paperwork reshuffle. It decides which green technologies actually get built—and when.
From a green technology perspective, three big themes stand out.
1. Storage is now treated as core grid infrastructure
The sheer scale of the numbers—83GW of prioritised batteries, 132GW of renewables pre-2030—shows that storage has moved from "nice to have" to non‑negotiable grid asset.
For AI-enabled grid planning tools, portfolio optimisers, and smart energy platforms, that’s a clear signal:
- There will be heavy competition among BESS assets to capture ancillary services and arbitrage revenues
- The winners will be projects that are better optimised, better forecasted, and better integrated with the wider system
This is exactly where AI-powered optimisation and forecasting tools shine, from frequency response strategies to multi-market bidding.
2. Speculative strategies just became much more expensive
The previous queue rewarded speed of application over project quality. Developers could file grid applications early and worry about permits, land, and financing later.
NESO has flipped that logic. With limited capacity to 2035 and a hard filter based on project maturity, speculative plays now carry serious risk:
- You can burn time and capital on projects that never get a connection date
- That risk flows straight through to lenders and investors, pushing up cost of capital
Serious players will lean harder on data-driven siting tools, network constraint models, and AI-based scenario planning before they commit to grid applications.
3. Storage strategy must match real system needs
NESO’s claim of a 62GW oversupply of BESS by 2035 isn’t a declaration that “storage is done.” It’s a sign that:
- A huge chunk of capacity was clustered in the same locations and use cases
- Not enough storage was targeting grid constraints, renewable curtailment hotspots, or long-duration flexibility gaps
For green technology companies, there’s a clear opportunity:
The grid doesn’t need more storage projects. It needs smarter storage projects.
That means assets that are:
- Sited where they relieve congestion and reduce curtailment
- Sized and configured to support high-renewables operation
- Managed by AI that optimises both commercial returns and system value
What Battery Developers Should Do Next
If you’re holding UK BESS projects that just fell into Gate 1—or disappeared entirely—you’re not stuck. But you do need to change how you approach development.
1. Audit your portfolio against the new reality
Start with a cold, numbers-first review:
- Which projects have protected status and firm dates?
- Which are Gate 1, and under what conditions might they move to Gate 2?
- Do any have such structural issues—planning risk, weak business case, bad siting—that they should be written off or repurposed?
I’ve found that the most successful developers treat this as an opportunity to prune aggressively. Clearing out marginal projects frees up capital and bandwidth for higher-quality sites.
2. Pivot to locations where storage really solves a problem
NESO’s methodology has made one fact painfully obvious: location now matters more than ever.
Strong candidates for future-proof storage projects typically share at least one of these traits:
- They sit behind or near constrained grid nodes
- They co-locate with large solar or wind farms facing curtailment risk
- They support EV charging hubs, ports, data centres, or industrial clusters with rising peak demand
This is where AI-powered siting and constraint analysis tools earn their keep. Combining grid data, planning constraints, and price signals into a siting model is now a must-have, not a luxury.
3. Use AI and software to make each MWh work harder
With NESO projecting an oversupply of BESS capacity by 2035, simply adding more megawatts isn’t a winning strategy. Extracting more value from each installed asset is.
Practical levers include:
- Multi-market optimisation: Using AI to trade across frequency response, balancing, capacity, and wholesale arbitrage
- Degradation-aware dispatch: Extending battery life by optimising cycling patterns against long-term asset value
- Forecast-driven operations: Combining weather, price, and system condition forecasts to target high-value windows
In the Green Technology series, we’ve looked at how AI can transform clean energy operations. NESO’s reforms just made that shift financially essential.
How Corporates and Investors Should Respond
If you’re not a developer but you’re buying power, hosting assets, or investing in green infrastructure, these reforms still affect you.
Corporate buyers: PPAs and on-site projects will feel the pinch
Corporates pursuing science-based targets or net-zero strategies have relied heavily on:
- Sleeved or virtual PPAs with new-build renewables
- On-site solar plus storage for cost control and resilience
The new queue rules introduce two challenges:
- Timing risk – Projects behind your PPAs might face later connection dates than originally expected.
- Scarcity of viable grid slots – Some sites you hoped to develop may simply not get connected before 2035.
What to do about it:
- Prioritise advanced-stage projects with Gate 2 status when selecting PPA partners
- Consider behind-the-meter storage that doesn’t depend on export capacity
- Use AI-based portfolio tools to model different combinations of PPAs, on-site assets, and demand flexibility
Investors: Quality trumps pipeline volume
For funds and lenders, the old metric of “GW in the pipeline” has just become far less meaningful.
Higher-quality indicators now include:
- Share of projects with protected or Gate 2 status
- Evidence of robust grid and constraint analysis
- Use of advanced optimisation software to protect revenues over asset life
Put bluntly, a lean 2GW portfolio with strong grid positions and smart optimisation is now more attractive than a 10GW scattergun pipeline sitting in Gate 1.
The Bigger System Picture: Is This Really ‘Too Much Storage’?
The claim of a 62GW “oversupply” of BESS by 2035 is already being debated. I think it’s a warning flag, not a verdict.
Short-duration vs long-duration storage
Most of the UK’s BESS pipeline is short-duration lithium-ion, typically 1–4 hours. That’s ideal for:
- Frequency response
- Short-term balancing
- Intra-day arbitrage
But a grid that’s close to 100% renewable power will also need long-duration energy storage (LDES)—technologies that can shift energy across days or even weeks.
NESO’s current model says it’s full on LDES through 2035, but that’s based on today’s assumptions about demand, flexibility, and interconnection. As heat, transport, and industry electrify faster than expected, those assumptions could age very quickly.
The role of AI and digital twins
Where AI becomes critical is in continually reassessing what the system really needs:
- Grid digital twins can test stress scenarios—cold snaps, low-wind periods, EV surges—and identify where more storage or flexibility is truly valuable
- Scenario planning can compare different mixes of batteries, LDES, demand response, and interconnection
In other words, “oversupply” is a model output, not a law of physics. Better models, fed with real-world data, will refine what optimal storage really looks like for a net-zero grid.
Where This Leaves the UK Green Technology Landscape
Most companies get grid strategy wrong because they treat it as a compliance exercise. NESO’s reforms show it’s actually a competitive battleground.
For battery developers, investors, and corporates, the message is clear:
- Raw pipeline size doesn’t matter anymore; project quality and system value do
- Batteries that are smarter, better-sited, and optimised by AI will outperform generic megawatts
- Green technology isn’t just about adding assets—it’s about orchestrating them intelligently across the system
If your organisation is serious about the energy transition, this is the moment to upgrade your toolkit: better grid data, stronger modelling, and AI-powered optimisation across your clean energy portfolio.
The UK might have cut 153GW of batteries from its queue, but the need for intelligent, flexible storage hasn’t gone anywhere. The question now is who adapts fastest to this new, more selective phase of the green technology transition.