How China’s Climate Moves Will Shape Green Tech

Most companies watching the green transition focus on new gadgets and funding schemes. The smarter ones track something less glamorous: who controls the rules, minerals and markets that make green technology possible.

Over the past few weeks, China has quietly shaped all three. From climate diplomacy at COP30 and the G20, to a surge in coal use during an autumn heatwave, to rapid moves in hydrogen, carbon markets and super‑pollutant controls, Beijing is signalling what the next decade of clean energy and sustainable industry will look like.

This matters because anyone building a green technology strategy in 2026—whether you run a manufacturing line, a data center or a climate startup—will either align with these shifts or run into them.

Below I’ll break down what just happened, why it matters for climate and business, and how AI-enabled green tech can turn these geopolitical moves into practical opportunities.

1. Climate diplomacy, critical minerals and the new green power map

China used COP30 in Brazil and the G20 summit in South Africa to push two parallel messages: more climate cooperation, and tighter control over the ingredients of the clean energy economy.

Climate finance and the $300bn question

China pushed hard at COP30 for a “practical roadmap” to deliver the new global climate finance goal of $300bn per year from developed to developing countries. The logic is blunt: without predictable capital, emerging economies won’t build the renewables, grids and climate‑resilient infrastructure the world needs.

Negotiators ended up with a two‑year work programme on climate finance that doesn’t give China everything it wanted. Contributions from developing countries are now on the table, not just those from traditional donors. Still, the signal is clear: climate finance is moving from vague promises to more codified expectations.

For green technology businesses, that means:

• More structured funding windows for clean energy and adaptation projects
• Stronger demand pipelines in emerging markets once the finance flows
• Greater scrutiny on what counts as real climate impact, not just green branding

If you’re building AI-powered climate solutions—forecasting tools, optimization software, or monitoring platforms—this shift towards measurable finance is a gift. Financiers will need robust, data‑driven ways to verify emissions cuts and resilience gains. AI is very good at that.

Critical minerals: resilience versus restriction

At the G20, leaders agreed to “ensure critical mineral value-chain resilience” and highlighted risks from geopolitical tensions and unilateral trade measures. That’s diplomatic code for: supply chains for lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths are now strategic assets.

China, which dominates processing for many of these minerals, defended its right to “cautiously manage” exports, especially for military‑linked uses. At the same time, it launched a “green mining initiative” with 19 nations, and signed an Africa modernisation initiative with South Africa focused on green infrastructure and responsible mining.

Here’s what that means for the green tech and AI world:

• Hardware volatility is structural. Solar, batteries, EVs and wind turbines all depend on minerals China helps refine. Expect ongoing policy‑driven price swings.
• Data will be as critical as ore. Miners, traders and manufacturers will need real‑time visibility into supply, ESG performance and pricing. AI‑driven supply‑chain platforms can provide that.
• New hubs will emerge. African countries, the UK and others are openly seeking to diversify away from single‑country dependence. That opens doors for technology partners that can help design and operate transparent, low‑carbon value chains.

If you sell or build AI for sustainable supply chains, this is your moment to move from pilot projects to core infrastructure.

2. China’s coal surge vs renewables boom: what’s actually happening?

October’s heatwave in southern China triggered a big spike in electricity demand. Coal plants, not renewables, covered most of the gap. At first glance, that looks like a step backwards for climate.

The reality is more nuanced—and more useful if you’re trying to read where the opportunity lies.

Coal as backup, not direction of travel

In October, coal power picked up the slack because of three main factors:

• Power purchasing rules that favor coal in short‑term markets
• Weak wind output that month
• The need to guarantee grid stability during a heatwave

At the same time, China added in October alone:

• 13 GW of new solar capacity
• 9 GW of new wind capacity
• 8 GW of new thermal (mostly coal) capacity

From January to October 2025, new additions were roughly:

• 253 GW solar
• 70 GW wind
• 65 GW thermal (mostly coal)

So yes, coal is still being built. But solar is being built much faster.

Greenpeace East Asia estimates new coal approvals in 2025 are on track to be the lowest since 2021—around 42 GW permitted in the first three quarters. That’s still twice the annual pace of 2016–2020, but the curve is bending.

Where green technology and AI can actually fix this

The constraint isn’t lack of panels or turbines. It’s how the system is run. I’ve found that three areas are especially ripe for AI‑driven solutions:

1. Grid forecasting and dispatch
   Sophisticated demand forecasting and weather‑aware dispatch can reduce the need for coal plants to stand by “just in case.” Machine‑learning models can align solar and wind output with demand peaks hours or days ahead.

2. Flexibility markets and pricing
   China’s current power‑purchasing rules often over‑reward inflexible coal. Software that simulates alternative market designs—and proves their reliability—gives regulators and grid operators the confidence to reform tariffs and capacity payments.

3. Behind‑the‑meter optimization
   As factories, data centers and campuses adopt on‑site solar, storage and flexible loads (like EV charging), AI can orchestrate them as a virtual power plant. That reduces grid stress during heatwaves, cutting coal peaking.

If you’re selling to Chinese or Asia‑facing clients, expect them to be highly interested in anything that turns intermittent renewables into firm, forecastable capacity.

3. Carbon markets, industrial emissions and the role of data

China is expanding its national carbon market beyond the power sector to cover steel, aluminium and cement by the end of 2025. These three sectors alone account for a huge share of global industrial emissions.

At the same time, China is refining its voluntary carbon market with new methodologies for oil and gas‑related projects, and tightening regulations on super‑pollutants such as HFCs and specific HCFCs in products like refrigerators, freezers and insulation.

Why this is a turning point for heavy industry

Once steel and cement are inside a functioning carbon market, two things happen:

• Emissions start to carry a real, trackable cost
• Low‑carbon alternatives suddenly have a stronger business case

For global buyers that depend on Chinese materials—EV makers, construction firms, electronics manufacturers—this is a big deal. Carbon‑intensive inputs will become a competitive liability as carbon border measures and ESG scrutiny tighten.

Where AI and green tech add immediate value

If you operate in or buy from heavy industry, you should be thinking about:

• Carbon data infrastructure – Create reliable, auditable datasets on plant‑level energy use, process emissions and product footprints.
• Process optimization – Use machine learning to fine‑tune furnaces, kilns and casting lines, cutting energy use 3–10% with relatively modest capex.
• Product‑level emissions tracking – Embed emissions data into product IDs or digital passports, so you can prove a “low‑carbon steel” or “low‑clinker cement” claim.

China’s new rules on HFCs also reinforce a broader trend: climate policy is zooming in on short‑lived, high‑impact pollutants. For HVAC, cold chains and insulation, that means rapid redesign. Companies that combine materials innovation with AI‑driven system control (for example, smart refrigeration that minimizes leakage and overcooling) will be well positioned.

4. Hydrogen, nuclear and the next wave of green infrastructure

China isn’t just adding wind and solar. It’s building the next layer of green infrastructure: hydrogen, nuclear and advanced grid‑integrated industry.

Green hydrogen at industrial scale

Beijing has confirmed ongoing support for green hydrogen, with several projects coming online and the sector gaining access to carbon credits. One flagship project integrates green hydrogen into a coal‑to‑chemicals plant, expected to produce 71 million cubic metres of hydrogen per year.

Is that ideal from a purist standpoint? No—tying hydrogen to coal looks messy. But strategically, it accelerates deployment of electrolyser capacity and drives down costs, while starting to decarbonize a hard‑to‑abate sector.

The hydrogen industry has even launched its first “anti‑involution” initiative, essentially a pledge to avoid self‑destructive price wars, fake projects and pessimism. That’s a sign the sector wants managed, sustainable growth instead of a boom‑and‑bust cycle.

If you’re building or using AI in hydrogen, the practical opportunities are clear:

• Optimize electrolyser operation to match variable renewables and power prices
• Predict equipment degradation and schedule maintenance
• Model hydrogen logistics (pipelines, trucking, storage) under different demand scenarios

Nuclear as a stable low‑carbon anchor

China is on the brink of operating 60 nuclear reactors, after the newest unit at the Fujian Zhangzhou plant passed final checks. Nuclear won’t replace renewables, but it does provide low‑carbon baseload that eases integration of high shares of wind and solar.

Combined with the renewables pipeline and hydrogen build‑out, this points toward a grid that will, over time, be structurally cleaner, more electrified and more complex. That complexity is exactly where AI‑enabled green technology shines.

5. What this means for your green tech and AI strategy in 2026

Taken together, China’s recent moves sketch a clear trajectory:

• More renewables and nuclear in the mix, but coal as backup until markets and grids get smarter
• Tighter control and politicisation of critical minerals
• Rapid expansion of carbon markets to heavy industry
• Early but serious bets on green hydrogen and other enabling tech

If you’re planning your next 12–24 months, here’s how to turn this into action:

1. Build around volatility, not against it
   Mineral markets, power prices and policy signals will stay noisy. Design AI tools and green technologies that treat volatility as an input, not a bug—forecast it, hedge against it and adapt to it.

2. Treat carbon data as a first‑class asset
   Whether you sell in China or just buy from Chinese suppliers, high‑quality emissions data will become mandatory, not optional. Start building the pipelines, monitoring systems and governance now.

3. Position as a trusted systems partner, not a point solution
   Governments and large enterprises don’t just need one more dashboard. They need integrated planning: where to build capacity, how to run it, how to pay for it and how to report results. The winners in green technology will be those who can connect these dots.

4. Watch policy forums as closely as product launches
   COP decisions, G20 communiqués and national five‑year plans are now product roadmaps in disguise. They tell you where demand for green and AI‑driven solutions will appear, which sectors will move first, and where the financing will come from.

The big picture? China isn’t moving in a straight line, but the direction is unmistakable: a more electrified, data‑driven, low‑carbon economy that still leans on fossil fuels in the short term. For businesses building serious green technology and AI solutions, that’s not a reason to wait. It’s a reason to move faster—and to design for the world as it is, not the world as we wish it were.