SME Cashflow in 2026: Payments, PayTo, and Growth

A lot of Aussie founders still treat payments as “ops plumbing” — something you fix later, after product-market fit. Most companies get this wrong. In 2026, payments are marketing in disguise: the way customers pay (and the reliability of that process) shapes trust, retention, referrals, and your ability to fund growth.

Inside Small Business recently highlighted a sobering forecast for Australian SMEs: late payments are rising, payroll compliance is getting tighter, and the shift from legacy direct debit infrastructure is accelerating. The takeaway for startups is simple: cashflow pressure won’t wait for you to scale. If your collections fail, your marketing budget becomes the first casualty.

This post breaks down what’s changing in 2026 (late payments, Payday Super, PayTo, and potential surcharge rules), and then zooms out to the question founders actually care about: how do you turn brand visibility and smarter growth marketing into more predictable cashflow?

Snippet-worthy reality: Cashflow isn’t just finance. It’s the speed at which trust converts into money in the bank.

Late payments are a growth killer — and they’re getting worse

Late payments are now an operating risk, not an inconvenience. According to research cited in the source article, 1 in 6 Australian SMEs lose more than $2,500 per month to late payments — more than double the share reporting that level of loss in 2024. And 1 in 5 SMEs spend 6–12 working days per year chasing overdue invoices. Even worse: 10% have considered closing due to payment delays alone.

That’s not “a finance problem.” That’s a go-to-market problem.

When cash is trapped in unpaid invoices, startups respond in predictable (and damaging) ways:

• They pause or cut acquisition spend right when momentum matters.
• They discount too aggressively to pull cash forward, training customers to wait for deals.
• They stretch payables (and burn supplier goodwill).
• They underinvest in brand, content, and retention — the very levers that reduce future volatility.

What founders should do this quarter (not “eventually”)

Answer first: Tighten collections like you’d tighten your onboarding funnel.

Here’s a pragmatic, startup-friendly checklist that I’ve seen work repeatedly:

1. Make payment terms visible early (proposal, order form, checkout) and repeat them on invoices. Ambiguity is a delay multiplier.
2. Automate reminders (7 days before due, due date, 3/7/14 days overdue). Manual chasing is a hidden payroll cost.
3. Require a payment method upfront for ongoing services, even if you invoice monthly. If you can’t do that, require a deposit.
4. Shorten your “cash conversion cycle” before you scale ads. Spending $10k/month on marketing while waiting 45–60 days to get paid is a self-inflicted cash crunch.

“Marketing fixes late payments” (yes, really)

Answer first: Strong brands get paid faster because customers take them seriously.

Late payment isn’t always malicious. Often it’s “you’re not urgent.” Brand credibility makes you urgent.

Three marketing moves that reduce payment friction:

• Publish proof of reliability: customer stories, quantified outcomes, and clear delivery timelines. Customers pay faster when they trust delivery.
• Productise your offer: fixed scopes, fixed pricing tiers, fixed billing cadence. Bespoke proposals invite procurement delays.
• Build a billing narrative: your invoice shouldn’t feel like an unpleasant surprise. It should feel like the next step in a clear journey.

Payday Super and the new “payroll pressure test”

Payday Super starts on 1 July 2026, and the source article notes the ATO’s free super clearing house is set to close on the same day. Net effect: funds will move out of businesses more frequently, and payroll processes will need to be tighter.

Answer first: If your collections are lumpy and your payroll obligations become more frequent, the gap has to be closed somewhere.

Founders should expect two things in 2026:

1. More demand for integrated payroll + payments workflows (think “360º payroll” connecting payouts, collections, and reconciliation).
2. Less tolerance for messy admin. Manual payroll processes don’t just waste time; they create compliance risk.

Practical cashflow planning for the 2026 payroll cadence

Answer first: Build a 13-week cashflow view, then stress test it.

If you don’t already run a rolling 13-week cashflow forecast, start now. It’s the minimum viable tool for a tighter payments environment.

Stress test your forecast with scenarios like:

• “10% of invoices slip by 15 days.”
• “One large customer pays 30 days late.”
• “Card surcharge rules change and our average fee rate rises by 0.4%.”

Then decide in advance what you’ll do (pause hiring, change billing cadence, push annual prepay, reduce low-margin channels). When you decide under pressure, you usually choose the worst option.

PayTo’s adoption problem: big opportunity, messy rollout

The article calls out a serious awareness and adoption gap with PayTo, Australia’s modernised bank-to-bank payment capability. A striking stat: 61% of Australian SME decision-makers aren’t aware of PayTo.

Answer first: PayTo can improve payment certainty and reduce card costs, but bank rollout delays and low awareness are slowing real-world impact.

PayTo matters because it points to where Australian payments are heading:

• Instant confirmation and better verification
• Bank-to-bank pricing (often cheaper than card rails)
• Fraud protection advantages relative to some card workflows

The source notes Amazon AU has already rolled out PayTo, showing enterprise-scale viability, and flags the looming 2030 Direct Debit “sunset” deadline.

Where this fits in the “AI in Finance and FinTech” conversation

This post is part of our AI in Finance and FinTech series, and here’s the honest view: AI features will keep shipping, but the bigger win for many SMEs is still automation and infrastructure.

AI helps when it’s attached to concrete workflows:

• Predicting late-payer risk from invoice/payment history
• Optimising reminder timing and message sequencing
• Auto-matching payments to invoices (reconciliation)
• Detecting fraud patterns on new payment rails

If you’re a startup evaluating fintech tools, don’t buy “AI” as a concept. Buy measurable outcomes: fewer failed payments, faster settlement, fewer manual hours, fewer disputes.

A simple PayTo decision filter for startups

Answer first: Use PayTo (or bank payments generally) where you need predictability, not novelty.

PayTo is most compelling when you have:

• Subscriptions or recurring invoices
• High average order value where card fees bite
• Operational strain from failed/expired cards
• High cost-to-serve customers (so retention matters)

If you’re mainly doing one-off low-value transactions, you may still prioritise card acceptance for conversion. But even then: keep your eye on surcharge rules and customer expectations.

Card surcharges: regulation risk and pricing strategy in 2026

The source highlights that the RBA extended its review of card payment costs and surcharging through to March 2026, and suggests surcharges may become regulated or potentially banned.

Answer first: If surcharging is restricted, you’ll need a plan to protect margin without surprising customers.

This isn’t just a pricing issue. It’s a brand issue.

When customers feel “fee ambushed” at checkout, they don’t just abandon the cart — they lose trust. If surcharges are banned, the market will likely respond with:

• Small, broad price rises baked into list prices
• A stronger push toward cheaper payment methods (bank payments)
• Potential return of cash discounts in some models

The marketing-first way to handle payment costs

Answer first: Bake costs into pricing, then position it as simplicity.

If you need to adjust pricing in response to payment costs:

• Prefer small list price updates over last-minute checkout fees.
• Explain the “why” in plain language: “We keep pricing simple and transparent.”
• Offer discounts for annual prepay (cashflow win + retention win).
• For B2B, offer bank payment incentives that feel like a benefit, not a penalty.

Your pricing page and checkout flow are marketing assets. Treat them like it.

Turning cashflow pressure into a growth advantage

Cash crunches punish companies that rely on bursts of acquisition and slow back-office processes. They reward companies that build repeatable revenue systems.

Answer first: The safest cashflow in 2026 will come from retention-led growth: content, lifecycle marketing, and billing that’s built for recurring value.

Here’s the stance I’ll defend: if you’re worried about cashflow, don’t start by cutting marketing. Start by cutting wasteful marketing and doubling down on the channels that compound.

A 30-day “cashflow + marketing” sprint

Run this sprint with your finance and growth lead in the same room:

1. Audit your receivables: top 20 overdue accounts, reasons, and the pattern (procurement, missing PO, unclear deliverables, poor invoicing).
2. Fix your onboarding and delivery promises: late invoices often start as unclear scopes.
3. Add one trust asset: a case study, ROI calculator, or implementation timeline page.
4. Introduce a payment default: saved bank payment for recurring; deposits for projects.
5. Build lifecycle emails that reduce churn: renewal reminders, usage nudges, “value recaps.” Retention is cheaper cashflow than acquisition.

One-liner worth repeating: Predictable payments beat heroic sales months.

The 2026 forecast: what to watch next

Answer first: Expect a year where payments infrastructure, payroll compliance, and customer trust collide.

My watchlist for Aussie startups and SMEs in 2026:

• More payment automation inside payroll and accounting stacks (and more competitive pressure on integrations)
• Broader PayTo awareness campaigns as 2030 gets closer — but uneven bank execution
• Pricing and checkout redesigns if surcharging rules tighten
• AI applied to collections and reconciliation (quietly saving teams hours each month)

If you take one thing from the forecast, make it this: cashflow resilience is a growth strategy. The startups that win won’t be the ones with the fanciest AI demos; they’ll be the ones that turn marketing trust into faster, cleaner, lower-cost payments.

Where could your billing and payment experience remove friction for customers and reduce stress for your team this quarter?