Cashflow Crunch 2026: Stop Late Payments, Grow Faster

One in six Australian SMEs is now losing more than $2,500 every month because customers pay late. That’s not a “finance problem”. For startups, it’s a growth problem—because cashflow is the fuel your marketing, hiring, and product roadmap runs on.

What’s striking about the 2026 payments outlook is that it isn’t mainly about shiny new AI features (even though this post sits in our AI in Finance and FinTech series). The pressure is coming from the basics: getting paid on time, adapting to Payday Super from 1 July 2026, and preparing for a payments infrastructure shift (PayTo and the long runway to the 2030 direct debit sunset).

If you’re running a startup in Australia, here’s the stance I’ll take: you can’t “budget” your way out of late payments. You fix it by redesigning the way customers experience your billing, payments, and follow-up—then using automation (including AI where it makes sense) to keep it tight.

Late payments are a marketing problem (and a positioning opportunity)

Late payments hit startups harder than established businesses because your costs are immediate and non-negotiable: wages, tools, contractors, hosting, ad spend. Meanwhile, your receivables sit in limbo.

The data points from Ian Boyd’s forecast underline how widespread (and time-draining) the issue is:

• 1 in 6 Australian SMEs lose $2,500+ per month to late payments (more than double the share reported in 2024).
• 1 in 5 SMEs spends 6–12 working days per year chasing overdue invoices.
• 10% have considered closing permanently due to payment delays alone.

Here’s the part founders miss: the customer doesn’t experience “your accounts receivable”. They experience your brand. And your payment process is part of that brand.

If your invoices are unclear, your payment options are clunky, or your reminders feel awkward and inconsistent, customers will treat payment as optional—especially in B2B.

What “good” looks like in 2026

A modern billing experience is:

• Simple: one clear amount, one clear due date, one clear way to pay.
• Predictable: customers know what happens if they’re late (and you actually follow it).
• Low-friction: bank payments where possible; fewer manual steps.
• Consistent: automated reminders that sound like your brand—not a template from 2009.

A surprising upside: tightening payments can strengthen positioning. When your process is professional and consistent, you attract buyers who value reliability—and you repel the chronic late payers who drain your team.

Payday Super (1 July 2026) will expose weak cashflow systems

From 1 July 2026, Payday Super begins, and the ATO’s free super clearing house is set to close on the same date. That combination matters because it pushes money out of businesses more frequently.

If your collections are already lagging, this is where the gap widens: wages and super move faster than your incoming cash.

The practical implication for startups

Treat payroll as a cashflow workflow, not a back-office task.

What I’ve seen work is building a weekly rhythm that ties together:

1. Collections forecasting (what’s expected this week, what’s at risk)
2. Payroll commitments (wages, super, contractor runs)
3. Marketing spend pacing (what you can spend without gambling on late invoices)

If you’re thinking “that’s finance”, yes—but it directly affects your growth engine. When cash gets tight, most startups cut marketing first. That’s usually the wrong move. The smarter move is to protect pipeline and cut the things that don’t create revenue.

Where AI in fintech fits (without the hype)

AI isn’t the headline driver here, but it can help when applied narrowly:

• Predict which accounts are likely to pay late based on past behaviour
• Flag invoices that are missing PO numbers or approval steps (common delay causes)
• Suggest the best reminder timing based on response history

Think of this as “boring AI” that saves hours and reduces leakage—not flashy features.

PayTo has potential, but awareness is the real bottleneck

PayTo is positioned as a better, more modern alternative to legacy direct debit infrastructure, with benefits like real-time verification and instant payment confirmation. The problem isn’t the tech—it’s adoption.

Boyd’s forecast calls out a sharp stat: 61% of Australian SME decision-makers aren’t aware of PayTo.

That’s a marketing failure across the ecosystem.

What founders should do now (even if PayTo adoption stays slow)

You don’t need to bet your whole billing stack on PayTo in January 2026. You do need to design for a world where:

• bank-to-bank payments become more normal
• customers expect faster confirmation
• payment auth and verification matter more (fraud and disputes aren’t going away)

Concrete actions you can take this quarter:

• Offer bank payment options by default for invoices and recurring plans where it fits.
• Reduce choice overload: too many payment options often increases admin and reconciliation pain.
• Set internal targets: e.g., “80% of customers on autopay within 90 days” for eligible services.

If you sell to enterprises, start a simple conversation in procurement terms:

“We support bank payments and can align to your preferred rails. What’s the fastest approval path on your side?”

That single line can surface hidden blockers (vendor onboarding steps, security checks, who approves payment authorities) before you’re 45 days overdue.

If card surcharges get regulated, your pricing and retention need a reset

The RBA has extended its review of card payment costs and surcharging through to March 2026. A realistic outcome in 2026 is tighter regulation—or a ban—on card surcharges at the register.

If that happens, businesses will still pay the card acceptance cost. The difference is you may not be able to itemise it as a surcharge.

The right way to think about it

Don’t treat this as “lost margin” and quietly hope it’s fine.

Treat it as a prompt to improve unit economics:

• Increase the share of customers on lower-cost payment methods (often bank payments)
• Improve retention so you’re not constantly paying acquisition costs plus card fees
• Simplify pricing so customers don’t feel nickelled-and-dimed

You may also see a comeback of cash discounts in certain sectors. For startups selling online services, the equivalent isn’t “cash discount”—it’s an incentive for annual prepay, autopay, or bank payment rails.

A 30-day plan to get paid faster (without sounding aggressive)

Most startups either ignore late payments until panic hits, or they overcorrect with harsh policies that damage relationships. There’s a middle path: clear terms, consistent automation, and messaging that’s firm but professional.

Week 1: Fix the invoice and the expectation

• Put the due date in plain English: “Due: 14 days (24 Jan 2026)”
• Include what happens next: “If payment isn’t received, access may be paused on day 21.” (only say this if you’ll do it)
• Add a one-line value reminder: “Thanks for partnering with us on [outcome].”

Week 2: Add automation (and make it sound like you)

Use a reminder sequence that escalates gently:

1. 3 days before due: friendly heads-up + link to pay
2. On due date: “Due today” + link to pay
3. 7 days late: “Overdue” + ask if there’s a blocker (PO, approver, vendor setup)
4. 14 days late: clear next step + call scheduled

If you have AI writing assistance, use it for tone consistency and personalisation—but keep approvals human.

Week 3: Move eligible customers to autopay

If your business model supports recurring revenue, push hard for autopay because it changes everything:

• Less chasing
• Better forecasting
• Fewer awkward conversations

A simple conversion tactic that works: offer two plans:

• Standard invoicing (higher price)
• Autopay (slightly lower price, or added perk)

That’s not manipulation. It’s pricing based on the cost-to-serve.

Week 4: Connect payments to growth metrics

Your leadership dashboard should include:

• DSO (days sales outstanding) trend
• % of customers on autopay
• overdue amount by segment
• marketing spend as a function of collected revenue, not invoiced revenue

This is where finance operations meets marketing strategy. When you know what cash is actually landing, you can invest in acquisition confidently instead of hitting stop-start cycles.

The 2026 advantage: brands that make paying easy will win

The 2026 payment forecast is a reminder that fintech and regulation changes don’t hit startups evenly. The startups that win aren’t the ones with the fanciest stack—they’re the ones that make payment easy, predictable, and boring.

If you do three things—tighten expectations, automate follow-up, and shift more customers onto bank payments or autopay—you’ll feel the difference quickly. More cash in the account means fewer compromises: you can keep marketing running, hire earlier, and negotiate supplier terms from a position of strength.

This post is part of our AI in Finance and FinTech series for a reason: AI is useful, but only after you fix the workflow it’s meant to optimise. Clean data, clear customer experience, consistent policy—then add automation.

What would change in your startup if late payments dropped by 30% before EOFY 2026—and you could plan growth from cash you can actually trust?